We're approaching the meatier portion of the season, where league standings fluctuate less and less and where playing the waiver wire becomes more and more important. You might be wondering why your fantasy team that's full of depth and talent isn't panning out. Perhaps you thought your team was a shoe-in after the draft.
First, it's important to remember that we're still early in the season and anything can happen. If you're still worried, here are some things to consider.
One, it's early. There's no need to panic.
Two, is your league set for maximum games? That is to say, do you have a limited amount of games to use for each position? If the answer is yes, you might want to monitor those, because using them too quickly means you won't have any later in the season and using them not quickly enough means you might not get all your games in, which gives you a big disadvantage. Check how many games you have used. Having a deficit in games used could be the reason why your opponents are doing better than you at this point in the season.
Three, in Roto, are you considering all of the STAT CATS in the league? Points, rebounds and assists, for example, are statistics that tend to be more often monitored by team owners. Steals and turnovers, on the other hand, sometimes get overlooked. It's important to have at least some degree of balance on your team. Let's discuss some of the STAT CATS that are monitored less frequently and how they can affect your overall performance.
Turnovers
Many fantasy owners take the approach of completely disregarding turnovers when their league includes them. They argue that the best players are the ones who touch the ball the most and will naturally turn the ball over, so in order to get the best players to help you win, you have to ignore turnovers.
I don't believe that's true.
The real gems in roto leagues that include turnovers are the players who produce at a high level who don't turn the ball over. In rotisserie, turnovers count just as much as any other STAT CAT, including points and rebounds. So, it's in your best interest to start paying attention to them.
Here is the current list of most turnover prone players in the NBA:
1. Carmelo Anthony - 4.3 topg
1. Dwayne Wade - 4.3 topg
3. Allen Iverson - 4.2 topg
4. Yao Ming - 3.9 topg
5. Gilbert Arenas - 3.8 topg
6. Steve Nash - 3.7 topg
7. Tim Duncan - 3.6 topg
7. Kobe Bryant - 3.6 topg
7. Paul Pierce - 3.6 topg
10. T.J. Ford - 3.5 topg
Carmelo Anthony leads the NBA in scoring, which have excited a lot of fantasy owners. Now consider that he also leads the league in turnovers. If you're talking in terms of roto, these two statistics basically cancel each other out. You're getting a huge boost in points, but you're also getting the current tied-for-worst turnover player in the league.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't have Carmelo Anthony on your team, only that you should know what your players are doing for your team and to your team. The players listed above contribute a lot to fantasy basketball teams, but they can also hurt a lot.
Steals
Now let's do the same thing for steals as we did for turnovers.
1. Ron Artest - 2.8 spg
2. Allen Iverson - 2.3 spg
3. Chris Paul - 2.2 spg
4. Andre Iguodala - 2.0 spg
4. Gilbert Arenas - 2.0 spg
6. Shawn Marion - 1.9 spg
6. Brevin Knight - 1.9 spg
6. Carmelo Anthony - 1.9 spg
9. Mike Bibby - 1.7 spg
9. Andre Miller - 1.7 spg
You really have to use your best judgment. Obviously, not all of these players will sustain their averages. Some will improve as the season goes along and some will drop off. For instance, let's pick on Carmelo Anthony again. He's having a career year so far in steals at 1.9 per game. That's outstanding! However, he only has a career average of 1.1 steals per game. Considering that information, you the fantasy owner have to make the assessment of whether he'll continue that pace or whether he'll drop off significantly.
Blocks
1. Jermaine O'Neal 3.2 bspg
2. Emeka Okafor 3.1 bspg
3. Andris Biedrins 2.8 bspg
4. Andrei Kirilenko 2.7 bspg
5. Marcus Camby 2.6 bspg
5. Alonzo Mourning 2.6 bspg
7. Dwight Howard 2.1 bspg
8. Darko Milicic 2.0 bspg
8. Rasheed Wallace 2.0 bspg
8. Kendrick Perkins 2.0 bspg
Field Goal Percentage
Regarding FG and FT percentages, the biggest thing to consider is how many attempts per game the player gets.
I remember when Reggie Miller was still playing. Fantasy owners used to always think that Shaq's sub-50% foul shooting could be offset by Miller's plus-90% foul shooting. The problem is, Shaq averaged more than 10 attempts per game and Miller averaged less than 2. Therefore, Miller didn't take nearly enough shots to offset Shaq's horrible foul shot percentage.
1. Erick Dampier 67.7% (5.8 attempts per game)
2. Andris Biedrins 65.1% (7.1 attempts per game)
3. Amare Stoudemire 62.1% (9.1 attempts per game)
4. David Lee 61.2% (6.8 attempts per game)
5. Dwight Howard 59.1% (9.8 attempts per game)
6. Carlos Boozer 58.4% (15.6 attempts per game)
7. Ruben Patterson 56.5% (8.6 attempts per game)
8. Tim Duncan 55.3% (15.7 attempts per game)
9. Chris Wilcox 55.0% (7.3 attempts per game)
10. Nenad Krstic 54.4% (12.2 attempts per game)
Another thing to consider is that some of these players with high FG% may also have extremely low FT%. In that case, you're simply sacrificing one for the other.
Free Throw Percentage
1. Steve Francis 92.4% (4.9 attempts per game)
1. Dirk Nowitzki 92.4% (8.2 attempts per game)
3. Jarrett Jack 92.1% (4.2 attempts per game)
4. Ray Allen 91.7% (6.1 attempts per game)
5. Fred Jones 90.7% (2.5 attempts per game)
6. Wally Szczerbiak 90.5% (5.3 attempts per game)
7. Kevin Martin 90.4% (6.9 attempts per game)
8. Joey Graham 90.3% (1.9 attempts per game)
9. Steve Nash 90.2% (3.9 attempts per game)
10. Sam Cassell 89.6% (4.5 attempts per game)
Here we see that Dirk Nowitzki, despite shooting the exact same percentage from the line as Steve Francis, is actually a better value for FT% than Francis because he shoots 3.3 more free throws per game.
There's still a lot of road to travel before the season comes to a conclusion, which means there's a whole lot of time to redirect your ship. Don't panic and don't give up top-flight players who might be struggling or injured. Remember, buy low, sell high. That is to say, don't try to trade off your struggling star, because you probably won't get much value from him. If you want to pull a deal, your best bet is to trade him while he's surging when his value is high.
