It’s time once again to start comparing players by their fantasy values.  It was sort of difficult to find two worthy opponents who have both been reasonably healthy.  The theme of this season seems to be missed games.  Hopefully 2007 proves to hold better health for the NBA.
 
Today’s Matchup:  Tim Duncan vs Dwight Howard
 
Just a reminder, when you're talking about anything fantasy it's important to communicate how the scoring structure of your league works. For our purposes, I'm going to assume we're talking about rotisserie using Yahoo Fantasy Sport's default scoring system…the stat cats being points, rebounds, assists, 3's made, blocks, steals, fg%, ft% and to's.
 
In roto, you're looking to compare players stat-by-stat, since roto is really designed to level the playing field of statistics (for instance, by roto standards if a player gets about 2 steals per game, it's the equivalent in steals of a player scoring about 20-25 points per game).
 
Points Per game
Tim Duncan 20.5
Dwight Howard 16.8 
 
Rebounds Per Game
Tim Duncan 10.2
Dwight Howard 12.5
 
Assists Per Game
Tim Duncan 3.2
Dwight Howard 1.8
 
Blocks Per Game
Tim Duncan 1.9
Dwight Howard 1.9
 
Steals Per Game
Tim Duncan 0.8
Dwight Howard 0.8
 
3s Made Per Game
Tim Duncan 0.0
Dwight Howard 0.0
 
FG% (and FG's attempted per game):
Tim Duncan 55.7% / (14.2 attempts per game)
Dwight Howard 57.0% / (10.4 attempts per game)
 
FT% (and FT's attempted per game):
Tim Duncan 64.0% / (7.4 attempts per game)
Dwight Howard 66.7% / (7.5 attempts per game)
 
Turnovers Per Game:
Tim Duncan 2.9
Dwight Howard 3.5
 
Games Played so far:
Tim Duncan 33
Dwight Howard 33
 
The Verdict:
Tim Duncan wins.
 
This is a very close battle between two big men with different reputations in fantasy basketball.  On the one hand, fantasy owners look at Duncan as a very good fantasy contributor who used to be one of the best.  Many seem to feel like he’s losing his touch with age.  On the other hand, Dwight Howard is a young, up-and-comer who many fantasy owners think is on the verge of stardom. 
 
In a keeper league, Howard wins this match up hands down.  It’s tough to find anyone who wouldn’t argue that Howard is close to becoming a great NBA player.  However, by the numbers, Duncan still holds a slight edge against the younger opponent.
 

Duncan holds a cushioned lead in points over Howard, while Howard continues to be one of the best rebounders in the game.  The two are a wash when it comes to blocks, steals and threes, and Howard actually holds a very slight edge in free throw percentage, shooting two to three one-hundredths of a point better than Duncan.  On the other hand, one might argue that Howard’s field goal percentage (57%), though better than Duncan’s (55.7%), does not quite hold the same value because Duncan shoots a higher volume of shots which means that Duncan’s excellent field goal percentage will have more of a factor on your fantasy team than Howard’s field goal percentage.
 

For all intensive purposes, it’s close. Very close.
 

What really sets the two apart…and it’s very subtle…is the fact that Duncan adds over three assists a game (impressive for a center), and doesn’t turn the ball over as much as Howard does.  3.5 turnovers per game for only 1.8 assists per game is a painful statistic to stomach. 
 

This, of course, is assuming both stars stay healthy.  If you consider that Duncan has more of a track record for injuries, you might give the nod to Howard.