Understanding Turnovers in Rotisserie Fantasy Basketball

The most overused phrase in roto basketball regarding turnovers is, "all the great players turn the ball over, so you shouldn't worry about them."
 
These owners don't seem to understand how rotisserie leagues work.  In roto, every category is equalized, which means that say Jermaine O'Neal's league leading average of 3.0 bspg per game helps a team about as much in blocks as Allen Iverson's 31.2 ppg or Carmelo Anthony's 31.0 ppg helps a team in the points category. That means, that every category must be equalized in order to get a true sense of a player's fantasy value (at least in terms of roto).
 
An example has come up several times regarding Yao Ming's high turnovers. In rotisserie leagues with turnovers included as a STAT CAT, Yao's fantasy worth is often over hyped, because his 4.1 topg can kill you.  The justification for this is that "all the great players have high turnovers," but you have to be careful with what you label as "high turnovers."  3.0 is considered within the realm of "high," yet the difference between 4.1 and the low 3's in terms of turnovers is immense.
 
Remember that you have to equalize the categories.  The difference between 3 and 4 is 25%.  That means that the difference between 4.0 turnovers per game and 3.0 turnovers per game is the same as the difference between 30.0 ppg and 25% of that, which is 22.5 ppg.  If you were looking to draft or trade for a scorer, would you consider 30.0 ppg and 22.5 ppg close? Not even.
 
What this means is that disregarding turnovers altogether because "all the great players turn the ball over" is flawed and can seriously hurt how well you finish in your rankings.  If you draft, say, Dwayne Wade (4.2 topg) and Yao Ming (4.1 topg), you're basically all but punting turnovers away.  That's a whole category and it's worth just as much in fantasy points as the points category, rebounds category and all other STAT CATs.
 
I’m not telling you to necessarily dump all your players who have high turnovers, but you should have a true understanding of the kind of negative impact they might have on your fantasy team and, with that knowledge, you should be able to make an educated assessment of whether or not their services are worth the roster spot. 
 
I hate to pick on Yao Ming. He's a terrific basketball player and an asset to fantasy owners. 25.5 ppg, 9.2 rbpg, and 2.0 bspg is nothing to sneeze at, especially from the center position. His real contribution is his high percentages. It's very difficult to find a player - especially a center - who takes so many field goal and free throw attempts and shoots them at such a high percentage.  That being said, unless fantasy owners are willing to give up in the category, they really need to be thinking of compensating for Yao's ridiculous turnovers.
 
Another thing to note,

  • ...of the 23 players currently averaging more than 20 ppg, 12, or 60% of them, average under 3.0 topg! 
     
  • ...of the 10 players currently averaging over 10 rbpg, eight, or 80% of them, average under 3.0 topg! 
     
  • ...of the 19 players currently averaging over 6.0 apg, 11 of them (58%) average under 3.0 topg!
     
  • ...of the 17 players who average more than 1.5 spg, 10 of them (59%) average under 3.0 topg!
     
  • ...of the 10 players who currently average more than 2.0 bspg, eight of them (80%) average under 3.0 topg!
     
  • ...of the 18 players who currently average over 2.0 threes per game, 14 (78%) average under 3.0 topg! 

That all seems to dispel the notion that all the great players are automatically turnover prone.