It's time for another round of "One on One", where we take too similar fantasy basketball players and compare and contrast the two based on the numbers. All statistics are based on the 2006-2007 season.
Today's matchup: Raymond Felton vs T.J. Ford
First off, and you'll probably hear me preaching about this a lot, when you're talking about anything fantasy, it's important to communicate how the scoring structure of your league works. For our purposes, I'm going to assume we're talking about rotisserie using Yahoo Fantasy Sport's default scoring system (why? because I think it's the best...that's why). The stat cats being points, rebounds, assists, 3's made, blocks, steals, fg%, ft% and to's.
In roto, you're looking to compare players stat-by-stat, since roto is really designed to level the playing field of statistics (for instance, by roto standards if a player gets about 2 steals per game, it's the equivalent in steals of a player scoring about 20-25 points per game).
So, let's compare stats.
Points per game:
Raymond Felton 14.0
T.J. Ford 14.0
Rebounds per game:
Raymond Felton 3.4
T.J. Ford 3.2
Assists per game:
Raymond Felton 7.0
T.J. Ford 7.9
Blocks:
Raymond Felton 0.1
T.J. Ford 0.1
Steals:
Raymond Felton 1.5
T.J. Ford 1.4
3s made:
Raymond Felton 1.3
T.J. Ford 0.3
FG% (and FG's attempted per game):
Raymond Felton 38.4%/13.1 attempts
T.J. Ford 43.6%/12.0 attemps
FT% (and FT's attempted per game):
Raymond Felton 79.7%/3.3 attempts
T.J. Ford 81.9%/3.9 attempts
Turnovers:
Raymond Felton 3.0
T.J. Ford 3.1
Games played in '06-'07:
Raymond Felton 78
T.J. Ford 75
The Verdict:
Ford wins by a nose.
Though Raymond Felton is going two picks higher on average in Yahoo leagues (74.7 and 76.5 respectively), T.J. Ford actually might be the better value. Points, boards, blocks, steals and turnovers are all a wash. Felton has significant advantage in three pointers, which might be enough to nab him. Yet, threes are often easier to come by on the waiver wire. Ford gets almost one more assist per game. In addition, even though Ford's percentages aren't anything to gawk at, they leave you much better off than having to deal with Felton's horrendous field goal percentage. He's never shot above 40% in his career from the field. Granted, he's only played in two seasons, but it's still a cause for concern.
Meanwhile, Ford should only get better in Toronto's run-and-gun style offense. The Raptors have added more perimeter shooting in Jason Kapono, and Andrea Bargnani should be much improved this season, which will give Ford another option.
Felton should have a tighter grip on the reigns in Charlotte now that Brevin Knight is gone. Moreover, the addition of Jason Richardson gives him a formiddable threat on the wing.
Still, Ford gets the edge. Another thing to note is that though he played three fewer games than Felton, Ford finished 54th in Yahoo Rankings by total last season. Felton finished 66th.
Hey Bucko
Thanks for the comments. I understand the upside approach, but fantasy basketball is about the numbers and Felton shoots enough that his FG% really can hurt. If he averaged more threes per game, I'd say having to deal with a sub-40% shooters might be worth it. If Felton continues to shoot the ball like he has in 2007-2008, I might change my tune. I did consider Calderon, and I suppose I should have made that more known. However, the Raptors offense is designed for a point guard like Ford...someone with speed to push the ball up the court. Calderon being slower is one of the reasons the Raptors considered trading this off season. I think you'll see Calderon and Ford playing side-by-side like they did at the tail end of last season, more than you'll see Calderon eating into Ford's 29-30 minutes per game. That's another thing...Felton's numbers are based on him playing 7 more minutes per game than Ford. So, even though he had Brevin Knight on the roster, it's not like Felton was losing minutes on the court. Do you honestly think he'll see more than 36 minutes per game this season? On another note, I could certainly go back a couple years, but that wouldn't paint a true picture. Ford wasn't in a system that accommodated his style of play. Toronto's the PERFECT situation for him. I'm not saying you shouldn't consider Felton, but I am saying that the upside might not be as high as people think. Like I said...it's certainly close. But, being more percentage conscious, I'd take Ford.
Feltons Shooting %
I don't own Felton in any leagues, so I don't think I am biased in my assessment. I think his FG% will be up considerably this year. I would peg him at about 42% from the field. The main reason for this is Jason Richardson. Charlotte finally has a big time scoring threat that teams will double. Typically when a shooting guard is double teamed the PG is the open man. I definitely don't think they will be leaving Gerald Wallace open. This will give Felton some wide open looks. The upside is there. All things point to Felton improving on his numbers from last year. I don't really see anything that would suggest TJ Ford should IMPROVE on his numbers. Ford might put up similar numbers. But, if he puts up similar numbers and Felton improves only slightly, than Felton passes him. If Felton has a break out year, the comparison could really be lob-sided.
RE: Felton's Shooting %
I never meant to imply that you were bias. You bring up some great points. Like I said,...it was close. You bring up a very good point about J-Rich drawing attention away from Felton. That could very well be enough to pick up his FG%. We'll have to see.
These are just early-in-the-season assessments. I still think Ford is the safer pick. Will he necessarily be the right pick? Only time will tell. Though, by my indication of how close this fantasy match was, it should be evident that Felton ending up on top wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Wait and see
Thats what it is all about with Fantasy. BTW...you now have a new avid reader. I am always looking for decent articles on Fantasy Basketball, I am an addict. What you are doing with the One on One's is very interesting. Its something I do before many a draft.
RE: Wait and see
Thanks so much for the kind words. We have fun and am glad others do too.
Yeah, I want it known that these are my opinions. I could very well end up wrong (it did happen once I think...just kidding...twice :P).
Please, please, please keep commenting. The dialogue makes it all worth it and like I said before, you've got some great points, which tells me you've got some great insight.
Felton vs. Ford
My guess is that Felton is being picked a couple picks higher than Ford based on upside. If you only look at the stats from last year, Ford might be slightly better. You have to take into account that Felton has another year of experience and no longer has Brevin Knight breathing down his neck. Felton is being drafted higher because he deserves to be drafted higher. Also, you should consider the fact the Ford's backup(Calderon) is much better at running an offense than Ford, and is going to push Ford for minutes as the season progresses.