One on One: Nash vs Kidd

Today’s Matchup:  Steve Nash vs Jason Kidd
 

Just a reminder, when you're talking about anything fantasy it's important to communicate how the scoring structure of your league works. For our purposes, I'm going to assume we're talking about rotisserie using Yahoo Fantasy Sport's default scoring system…the stat cats being points, rebounds, assists, 3's made, blocks, steals, fg%, ft% and to's. 
 

In roto, you're looking to compare players stat-by-stat, since roto is really designed to level the playing field of statistics (for instance, by roto standards if a player gets about 2 steals per game, it's the equivalent in steals of a player scoring about 20-25 points per game).
 

Anyway, let’s compare statistics, shall we?
 

Points Per game
Steve Nash 18.9
Jason Kidd 13.3
 

Rebounds Per Game
Steve Nash 4.2
Jason Kidd 7.3
 

Assists Per Game
Steve Nash 10.5
Jason Kidd 8.4
 

Blocks Per Game
Steve Nash 0.2
Jason Kidd 0.4
 

Steals Per Game
Steve Nash 0.8
Jason Kidd 1.9
 

3s Made Per Game
Steve Nash 1.9
Jason Kidd 1.7
 

FG% (and FG's attempted per game):
Steve Nash 51.2% / (13.4 attempts per game)
Jason Kidd 40.4% / (11.3 attempts per game)
 

FT% (and FT's attempted per game):
Steve Nash 92.1% / (3.5 attempts per game)
Jason Kidd 79.5% / (3.1 attempts per game)
 

Turnovers Per Game:
Steve Nash 3.5
Jason Kidd 2.4
 

Games Played in ’05-’06:
Steve Nash 79
Jason Kidd 80
 

The Verdict:
Jason Kidd wins. 
 

I’m expecting a lot of mudslinging on this pick, because I realize that Jason Kidd is not the popular pick.  I’ve taken a lot of flack in my Kidd-over-Nash rants, but hear me out.
 

First, know that Kidd and Nash are in VERY close proximity to one another in terms of fantasy value. It really all depends on what you need and what STAT CATs you want to anchor with your earlier picks.  Nash has a big leg up in points and has very nice percentages all around – both of which are difficult-to-find statistics off the wire and in later rounds of your fantasy draft.  However, Kidd has an even bigger leg up in steals than Nash does in those categories, and steals can also be a difficult statistic to find in the later rounds of your fantasy draft. 
Consider that Nash only attempts 13.4 field goals per game, which was 45th in the league for field goal attempts last season.  Kidd’s attempts are even less.  This means that Nash’s high FG% does not weight nearly as much as many of the other top scorers in the league.  The same rule applies for his free throw percentage.  3.5 attempts isn’t anything to gawk at.
 

On the other hand, Jason Kidd’s 1.9 steals per game is 6th in the league and more than doubles Nash’s 0.8 steals per game production. That kind of contribution can weigh heavy on how you place in that STAT CAT.
 

Moreover, in a 9 STAT CAT League, Nash’s assists over Kidd are a bit misleading.  Certainly, 10.5 assists per game is outstanding.  There was, in fact, no player to average more per game last year.  That being said, Kidd’s 8.4 per game is still near the top of the league and is much more attractive when you consider that his comes with low turnovers. The difference between 3.5 turnovers per game (from Nash) and 2.4 turnovers per game (from Kidd) may not seem like a lot, but consider that the league leader for the most turnovers topped out at 3.7 last year.  That makes 1.1 a huge difference! Also remember that in the grand scheme of things, statistics like turnovers count just as much as any when referring to a 9 STAT CAT League. 
 

To break it down, Nash has a huge advantage over Kidd in points.  He has a big advantage in FG and FT % as well, though I don’t think those weigh as much as many might think. 
 

Kidd has a huge advantage over Nash in rebounds, steals and low turnovers.
 

They are a wash in threes (Nash averages .02 more this year, but Kidd actually averaged more last year), and they are a wash in blocks (neither collects enough blocks to be a factor anyway).
 

Here’s the X factor that may make you lean toward Nash over Kidd.  Experts worry that Jason Kidd will lose minutes this year on account of his age.  They say they’ll try to save Kidd’s legs for the playoffs and play rookie Marcus Williams more and perhaps play Vince Carter some at the point guard.  The thing that makes me skeptical of this is that they’ve been saying that about Kidd for years.  Zoran Planinic was supposed to take minutes from Kidd a few years ago and he didn’t.  Jeff McInnis was supposed to take minutes from him last year.  He didn’t.  Kidd’s minutes per game has actually increase every year the last few years and regarding his age, he is only one year older than Steve Nash.  The bottom line is that the Nets struggle when Kidd does not play big minutes, especially if Carter is cold (Carter’s notoriously streaky).  Kidd’s point production has decreased slightly each year the last few years, but otherwise, he’s remained very consistent.  I see no indication that he won’t have a great season as usual. 
 

Another thing to note, Nash has never finished higher than Kidd on Yahoo’s final player rankings when both players are healthy.  And, that ranking system is automated by the numbers.
 

So, it’s really a tough call.  Nash has been the popular choice. I’ve taken a lot of heat for thinking otherwise, but I stand by it.  I’ll leave it up to you to make up your mind about this one, because it is a close one.




Nash/Kidd

I dunno, you bring up some solid points, but you know the Suns won't sit nash and the Nets seem determined to rest kidd til the end of games.

I see what you mean about Kidd's plusses having more weight to them than Nash's plusses (a VERY good point), but I still think that nash's percentages are huge.



Nash/Kidd argument

Well, like I said, it's a very close call. I still go with Kidd, but I'm sure I'm in the minority. I think my numbers speak for themselves, but it really comes down to what you think you can compensate for later and what you'd rather seek help in earlier.



Williams

So far Marcus Williams is looking pretty good, which might not bode well for Kidd's playing time.



I agree

I have taken Kidd in some of my leagues when Nash was still available. Its good to see I am not the only one who thinks he is a stronger Fantasy player. Have you seen that Vince Carter and Jason Kidd Fantasy Basketball comercial by the NBA? I saw it after I read this post and it cracked me up. Hah!



Marcus Williams

I read that they'll be giving Marcus Williams more minutes and resting Kidd more after the Nets beat Toronto last night. What do you think of that?



Marcus Williams cont'd

Kidd still played 34 minutes in his season opener. Last year he averaged 37 minutes per game. So yeah, I think he'll probably play a few less minutes per game this year. But the plan is to play Marcus Williams for 15 minutes while Kidd rests, and then play Williams alongside Kidd at the two spot.

Like I said, it's close. For some people this risk is enough to put Nash over the top, but I'm sticking with Kidd.