It's time for the first installment of "One on One," where we assess and compare one fantasy player with another to determine which player brings more fantasy value to the table. Scratching your head on whether to take Shawn Marion or Kevin Garnett? Vince Carter or Paul Pierce? Steve Nash or Jason Kidd? Let me help!
Today's matchup: Gilbert Arenas vs Dwayne Wade
First off, and you'll probably hear me preaching about this a lot, when you're talking about anything fantasy, it's important to communicate how the scoring structure of your league works. For our purposes, I'm going to assume we're talking about rotisserie using Yahoo Fantasy Sport's default scoring system (why? because I think it's the best...that's why). The stat cats being points, rebounds, assists, 3's made, blocks, steals, fg%, ft% and to's.
In roto, you're looking to compare players stat-by-stat, since roto is really designed to level the playing field of statistics (for instance, by roto standards if a player gets about 2 steals per game, it's the equivalent in steals of a player scoring about 20-25 points per game).
So, let's compare stats.
Points per game:
Dwayne Wade 27.2
Gilbert Arenas 29.3
Rebounds per game:
Dwayne Wade 5.7
Gilbert Arenas 3.5
Assists per game:
Dwayne Wade 6.7
Gilbert Arenas 6.1
Blocks:
Dwayne Wade 0.8
Gilbert Arenas 0.3
Steals:
Dwayne Wade 2.0
Gilbert Arenas 2.0
3s made:
Dwayne Wade 0.2
Gilbert Arenas 2.5
FG% (and FG's attempted per game):
Dwayne Wade 49.5%/18.8 attempts
Gilbert Arenas 44.7%/20.7 attempts
FT% (and FT's attempted per game):
Dwayne Wade 78.3%/10.7 attemps
Gilbert Arenas 82%/10.0 attempts
Turnovers:
Dwayne Wade 3.6
Gilbert Arenas 3.7
Games played in '05-'06:
Dwayne Wade 75
Gilbert Arenas 80
The Verdict:
Gilbert Arenas wins.
You'll probably see Dwayne Wade drafted much higher in most fantasy basketball leagues, but stop for a second before you pull that trigger. Wade's stock is sky high because of popularity and because of how well he performed in last year's NBA playoffs, but numbers-wise, he isn't really worthy of a top 2-5 pick as a lot of people might suspect. High turnovers and lack of three point shooting really hurts fantasy owners in leagues with this type of scoring system in place. Now, if turnovers aren't a factor in your league, you might consider taking Wade higher, but don't buy into the hype without really taking a look at what he really brings to the table.
Gilbert Arenas is not without problems. He has improved his FG% in each of the last three seasons and last year shot a respectable 44.7% from the field. Still, that doesn't compare to DWade's near 50% average. Both Wade and Arenas are extremely turnover prone. Both have been at the top of the league for most turnovers in the past couple of seasons. Both score a whole lot; both are near the top of the league in steals per game; both get a pretty good amount of assists; Wade has a slight edge in rebounding, but Arenas' 3.5 boards per game isn't bad for a guard; Wade has a minor edge in blocks, but really you're not going to be looking to your guard who averaged 0.8 blocks per game last year as being a determining factor in that category anyway.
The real difference-maker, in this case, is three pointers made. Again, if your league is set up differently you might not reach the same verdict. However, with this scoring structure, Gilbert Arenas beats out Dwayne Wade, despite what Yahoo sports experts might tell you. Wade shot 17% from the three point line which was the big reason for his low average of 0.2 threes made per game. Arenas on the other hand is a real gunner, which is a major benefit to your fantasy team. 2.5 is near the top of the league. If you're a casual fantasy player, think of it this way...2.5 threes per game is somewhat equivalent to a player scoring 25-30 points per game. On the other hand, 0.2 threes per game is probably more equivalent to someone scoring 4-8 points per game.
What do I mean by that? Like I said before, in rotisserie, the statistical categories are all equal...meaning if you win in points you get the same amount of points as if you were to win in steals even though points are generally a higher number. So, by hitting 2.5 threes a game - near the top of the league - you're getting a huge lift in threes.





Cool
Good points.